Here are highlights from thirteen items, including both news stories and op-ed pieces, which provide insight on important global issues and trends. such as the struggle for nuclear weapons proliferation, economic espionage, energy security and sustainability, climate change, and the future of the Internet. (Excerpts and links follow below this summary.)
EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA
In an extreme energy project tapping heat from raw sewage, Oslo's citizens are helping to warm their homes and offices simply by flushing the toilet. (Reuters, 4-7-06)
Iran is a good ten years away from having a bomb….What is really going on here is a ratcheting war of rhetoric. The Iranian hard liners are down to a popularity rating in Iran of about 15%....Likewise, Bush is trying to shore up his base, which is desperately unhappy with the Iraq situation, by rattling sabres at Iran. Bush's poll numbers are so low, often in the mid-30s…. (Juan Cole, Informed Comment, 4-12-06)
The experts disagreed on some details but were nearly unanimous on one crucial point: what might seem America’s ace in the hole—the ability to destroy Iran’s nuclear installations in a pre-emptive air strike—was a fantasy….There were three main problems...(James Fallow, The Atlantic Monthly, 5-06)
Iranians know that even if the US decided to bomb the country's nuclear sites, they are maintained by Russian advisers and technicians; that would mean in effect a declaration of war against Russia…. Iranians know Shi'ites in the south and in Baghdad would turn extreme heat on the occupation forces in Iraq…."if Europe does not act wisely with the Iranian nuclear portfolio and it is referred to the UN Security Council and economic or air travel restrictions are imposed unjustly, we have the power to halt oil supply to the last drop from the shores of the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz". (Pepe Escobar, Asia Times, 4-13-06)
ASIA PACIFIC
Evidently, China's government considers the development of indigenous technical standards a strategic priority….At the moment, most of the first movers are US, European or Japanese firms. But China would dearly like the first movers of the future to be Chinese. And the easiest way to make sure that happens is to promote indigenous technical standards, which - because China's market is so huge and growing so rapidly - the global electronics industry cannot afford to ignore….(Indrajit Basu, China and the art of standards war, Asia Times, 4-13-06)
Beware of the dragonfly: it may be a bugging robot disguised as a harmless insect. No, the advice does not come from a mental patient convinced the government is spying on his laundry bills: it was one of the security tips issued during last week’s two-day workshop for 120 Korean delegates in the nation’s impending free-trade negotiations with the U.S. (Chosun Ilbo, 4-9-06)
Concerns about Kyrgyzstan’s political stability are rising following an assassination attempt April 12 against a prominent civil society figure. The attack against Edil Baisalov -- head of the Coalition for Democracy and Civil Society, a Bishkek non-governmental organization – occurred as he was leaving the organization’s offices in central Bishkek…. (Eurasianet, 4-12-06)
AMERICAS
When the hated despots of nations like Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan loot their countries' treasuries, transfer their oil wealth to personal Swiss bank accounts and use the rest to finance (in the House of Saud's case) terrorist extremists, American politicians praise them as trusted friends and allies…..Eighty-two percent of Venezuelans think Chávez is doing a good job. That's more than twice the approval rating by Americans of Bush. He roundly defeated an attempt to recall him. So why is Washington lecturing Caracas? (Ted Rall, Common Dreams, 4-7-06)
London's Financial Times performed an American public service in its weekend edition, calling editorially for open and honest discussion of the influence of Israel on American foreign policy. The call came amid the resounding silence in "responsible" American circles concerning the paper recently issued by two highly regarded political scholars, Stephen Walt of Harvard and John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago, discussing the "Israeli lobby" in Washington and its effect on American foreign relations….(William Pfaff, International Herald Tribune, 4-6-06)
GLOBAL
THE world lacks the means to produce enough oil to meet rising projections of demand for fuel over the next decade, according to Christophe de Margerie, head of exploration for Total and heir presumptive to the leadership of the French energy multinational. The world is mistakenly focusing on oil reserves when the problem is capacity to produce oil...(Times of London, 4-8-06)
The world is moving towards a new third industrial revolution based on a new energy regime, argues US thinker Jeremy Rifkin as Europe considers how to reformulate its energy policy. "We are on the cusp of a new energy regime that will alter our way of life as fundamentally as the introduction of coal and steam power in the 19th century and the shift to oil and the internal combustion engine in the 20th century", argues Mr Rifkin in an interview with the EUobserver….” (Lisbeth Kirk, EU Observer, 4-13-06)
The Government's chief scientist today gave his starkest warning yet about the world's increasing carbon emissions saying that even the best-case scenario put millions of lives at risk by the end of the century. Professor Sir David King said that a 3C rise in global temperatures is likely within 100 years, a process that will lead to a rise in sea levels and increase in desertification that will place 400 million people at the risk of hunger...(Times of London, 4-14-06)
CYBERSPACE
Telecommunications companies like Verizon and AT&T want to build high-speed networks to provide video and Internet services in competition with cable companies. Will these networks be broadly available and foster technological innovation? Or will they simply benefit certain moneyed interests? The answer -- and, ultimately, the future of the Internet -- depends on the telecommunications bill currently winding its way through Congress. (Center for American Progress, 4-12-06)
Excerpts from these thirteen stories with links to the full texts follow below. Remember, words-of-power.blogspot.com is also a searchable database. It is meant to accelerate, intensify and enrich your online research.
EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA
In an extreme energy project tapping heat from raw sewage, Oslo's citizens are helping to warm their homes and offices simply by flushing the toilet. Large blue machines at the end of a 300-meter long tunnel in a hillside in central Oslo use fridge technology to suck heat from the sewer and transfer it to a network of hot water pipes feeding thousands of radiators and taps around the city. "We believe this is the biggest heating system in the world using raw sewage," Lars-Anders Loervik, managing director of Oslo energy company Viken Fjernvarme which runs the plant, told Reuters. The plant opened this week. The heat pump, a system of compressors and condensers, cost 90 million Norwegian crowns ($13.95 million) and has an effect of 18 megawatts (MW), enough to heat 9,000 flats or save burning 6,000 tonnes (5,900 tons) of oil a year. And experts say sewers could be exploited elsewhere. "The technology is there, so if the infrastructure is also there, this is a feasible solution in many cities worldwide," said Monica Axell, head of the International Energy Agency's heat pump center. ….Sewer power is less polluting than burning fossil fuels but more than renewable energy like wind power.
Alister Doyle, Oslo's sewage heats its homes, Reuters, 4-7-06
Despite all the sloppy and inaccurate headlines about Iran "going nuclear," the fact is that all President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Tuesday was that it had enriched uranium to a measely 3.5 percent, using a bank of 180 centrifuges hooked up so that they "cascade." The ability to slightly enrich uranium is not the same as the ability to build a bomb. For the latter, you need at least 80% enrichment, which in turn would require about 16,000 small centrifuges hooked up to cascade. Iran does not have 16,000 centrifuges. It seems to have 180. Iran is a good ten years away from having a bomb….What is really going on here is a ratcheting war of rhetoric. The Iranian hard liners are down to a popularity rating in Iran of about 15%....Likewise, Bush is trying to shore up his base, which is desperately unhappy with the Iraq situation, by rattling sabres at Iran. Bush's poll numbers are so low, often in the mid-30s, that he must have lost part of his base to produce this result….The real threat here is not unconventional war, which Iran cannot fight for the foreseeable future. It is the spread of Iraq-style instability to more countries in the region. Bush and Ahmadinejad could be working together toward the Perfect Storm.
Juan Cole, Iran Can Now Make glowing Mickey Mouse Watches, Informed Comment, 4-12-06
The experts disagreed on some details but were nearly unanimous on one crucial point: what might seem America’s ace in the hole—the ability to destroy Iran’s nuclear installations in a pre-emptive air strike—was a fantasy….There were three main problems:
- The United States was too late. Iran’s leaders had learned from what happened to Saddam Hussein in 1981, when Israeli F-16s destroyed a facility at Osirak where most of his nuclear projects were concentrated. Iran spread its research to at least a dozen sites—exactly how many, and where, the U.S. government could not be sure.
- The United States was too vulnerable. Iran, until now relatively restrained in using its influence among the Iraqi Shiites, “could make Iraq hell,” in the words of one of our experts, Kenneth Pollack, of the Brookings Institution. It could use its influence on the world’s oil markets to shock Western economies—most of all, that of the world’s largest oil importer, the United States.
- The plan was likely to backfire, in a grand-strategy sense. At best, it would slow Iranian nuclear projects by a few years. But the cost of buying that time would likely be a redoubling of Iran’s determination to get a bomb—and an increase in its bitterness toward the United States.
Iran is not to be easily intimidated. Few in Tehran take the threat of oil sanctions seriously. Iranians know that even if the US decided to bomb the country's nuclear sites, they are maintained by Russian advisers and technicians; that would mean in effect a declaration of war against Russia…. Iranians know Shi'ites in the south and in Baghdad would turn extreme heat on the occupation forces in Iraq. Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, on an official visit to Iran, according to his spokesman, said that "if any Islamic state, especially the Islamic Republic of Iran, is attacked, the Mehdi Army would fight inside and outside Iraq". Iranians also know they can bypass any trade sanctions by trading even more with China….Mohammed-Nabi Rudaki, deputy chairman of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission….has already threatened that "if Europe does not act wisely with the Iranian nuclear portfolio and it is referred to the UN Security Council and economic or air travel restrictions are imposed unjustly, we have the power to halt oil supply to the last drop from the shores of the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz". Up to 30% of the world's oil production passes through the strait. Were Iran to block it, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait would not be able to export their oil.
Pepe Escobar, The war on Iran, Asia Times, 4-13-06
ASIA PACIFIC
Evidently, China's government considers the development of indigenous technical standards a strategic priority….At the moment, most of the first movers are US, European or Japanese firms. But China would dearly like the first movers of the future to be Chinese. And the easiest way to make sure that happens is to promote indigenous technical standards, which - because China's market is so huge and growing so rapidly - the global electronics industry cannot afford to ignore, even if they perceive that losing control of standards will undermine their long-term interests….What we are seeing now is the early stage of a high-stakes struggle over technology standards that will last for many years, and analysts are beginning to discern the patterns….Undoubtedly, there is a growing school of thought that says the Chinese believe their market is so large that they will ultimately be able to force adoption of their standard, and eventually use this structural advantage to take control of the industries in question….Indeed, whether the rest of the world is prepared or not, it is already clear that China is using its massive markets and spectacular growth as leverage in the standards war. Markets for the country's electronic-information products have grown from $20 billion in 1999 to more than $85 billion (estimated) in 2005, and according to Vice Minister of Information Industry Lou Qinjian, China's output of several categories of home-made electronic and information products already ranks first worldwide. With consumer-electronics products such as color TV sets and mobile phones witnessing scorching growth, "China has become the world's second-largest consumer-electronics market next to the US," said the minister. ….The most likely pattern for the future is that China will first mass-produce in its home market, and then export its new technologies to neighboring developing-country markets in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and other countries that do not have technologies to call their own.
Indrajit Basu, China and the art of (standards) war, Asia Times, 4-13-06
Beware of the dragonfly: it may be a bugging robot disguised as a harmless insect. No, the advice does not come from a mental patient convinced the government is spying on his laundry bills: it was one of the security tips issued during last week’s two-day workshop for 120 Korean delegates in the nation’s impending free-trade negotiations with the U.S. The workshop was designed to help delegates guard their negotiation strategies from prying ears when the talksstart in June. Security authorities at the workshop revealed the extraordinary inventiveness of U.S.’s intelligence surveillance power, which indeed stretches to a dragonfly robot that records conversation with the microphones concealed in its trunk as it sluggishly drones about the room.
KOREAN FTA NEGOTIATORS PRIMED ON U.S. BUGGING TRICKS, Chosun Ilbo, 4-9-06
Concerns about Kyrgyzstan’s political stability are rising following an assassination attempt April 12 against a prominent civil society figure. The attack against Edil Baisalov -- head of the Coalition for Democracy and Civil Society, a Bishkek non-governmental organization – occurred as he was leaving the organization’s offices in central Bishkek at approximately 6 pm local time….
Kyrgyzstan has experienced frequent spasms of political violence since the Tulip revolution swept Askar Akayev’s old regime from power in March 2005. Prime Minister Feliks Kulov, who visited Baisalov in the hospital, characterized the assassination attempt as politically motivated. In early April, Baisalov led an NGO effort to organize mass demonstrations, calling on President Kurmanbek Bakiyev’s administration to vigorously pursue an anti-crime and corruption agenda. Baisalov had also been vocal in his opposition to a Supreme Court decision that enabled reputed organized crime boss Ryspek Akmatbayev to contest a parliamentary by-election….The assassination attempt sent shock waves through Kyrgyzstan’s NGO sector. Medet Tiulegenov, the executive director of the Soros Foundation – Kyrgyzstan, suggested that the incident could fuel criticism of the Bakiyev administration for not taking a tough stand against rampant crime and corruption. "Today’s attempt to take the life of a civil society leader signifies yet another manifestation of the deteriorating governance of Kyrgyzstan," Tiulegenov said….Kyrgyzstan has been the scene of geopolitical competition between Russia and the United States in recent years. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. However, there are indications that both states are alarmed by the country’s burgeoning disorder.
ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT IN KYRGYZSTAN UNDERSCORES SLIDE TOWARD INSTABILITY, Eurasianet, 4-12-06
AMERICAS
When the hated despots of nations like Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan loot their countries' treasuries, transfer their oil wealth to personal Swiss bank accounts and use the rest to finance (in the House of Saud's case) terrorist extremists, American politicians praise them as trusted friends and allies. But when a democratically elected populist president uses Venezuela's oil profits to lift poor people out of poverty, they accuse him of pandering. As the United States and Europe continue their shift toward a Darwinomic model where rapacious corporations accrue bigger and bigger profits while workers become poorer and poorer, the socialist economic model espoused by President Hugo Chávez has become wildly popular among Latin Americans tired of watching corrupt right-wing leaders enrich themselves at their expense. Left-of-center governments have recently won power in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay. Chávez's uncompromising rhetoric matches his politics, but what's really driving the American government and its corporate masters crazy is that he has the cash to back it up…..Eighty-two percent of Venezuelans think Chávez is doing a good job. That's more than twice the approval rating by Americans of Bush. He roundly defeated an attempt to recall him. So why is Washington lecturing Caracas? "The [Venezuelan] government is making billions of dollars [from its state oil company] and spending them on houses, education, medical care," notes CNN. And--gasp--people's lives are improving.
What if the rest of us noticed? No wonder Chávez has to go.
Ted Rall, The Danger of Hugo Chávez's Successful Socialism, Common Dreams, 4-7-06
London's Financial Times performed an American public service in its weekend edition, calling editorially for open and honest discussion of the influence of Israel on American foreign policy. The call came amid the resounding silence in "responsible" American circles concerning the paper recently issued by two highly regarded political scholars, Stephen Walt of Harvard and John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago, discussing the "Israeli lobby" in Washington and its effect on American foreign relations. So far as one can make out, in the mainstream American press, only United Press International, the International Herald Tribune, the Christian Science Monitor, the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post have carried articles on the paper….in the case of the Washington Post, two of them, both featuring the news that the totally insignificant David Duke, a former head of the Ku Klux Klan, applauds the Merscheimer-Walt paper….linking him to the Merscheimer-Wall document was an act of character assassination by association, just like those that won Sen. Joseph McCarthy infamy in the 1950s….In fact, Mearsheimer and Walt are recognized and respected political scholars in the so-called realist tradition, which regards the defense and promotion of the national interest of states as the chief purpose of foreign policy. Their paper is a responsible document of public importance. The venom in the attacks made on it risks the opposite of its intended effect by tending to validate the claim that intense pressures are exercised on publishers, editors, writers and American universities to block criticism, intimidate critics and prevent serious discussion of the American-Israeli relationship….
William Pfaff, Israeli lobby and U.S. foreign policy, International Herald Tribune, 4-6-06
GLOBAL
THE world lacks the means to produce enough oil to meet rising projections of demand for fuel over the next decade, according to Christophe de Margerie, head of exploration for Total and heir presumptive to the leadership of the French energy multinational.
The world is mistakenly focusing on oil reserves when the problem is capacity to produce oil, M de Margerie said in an interview with The Times. Forecasters, such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), have failed to consider the speed at which new resources can be brought into production, he believes.
“Numbers like 120 million barrels per day will never be reached, never,” he said.
Carl Mortished, World 'cannot meet oil demand', Times of London, 4-8-06
The world is moving towards a new third industrial revolution based on a new energy regime, argues US thinker Jeremy Rifkin as Europe considers how to reformulate its energy policy. "We are on the cusp of a new energy regime that will alter our way of life as fundamentally as the introduction of coal and steam power in the 19th century and the shift to oil and the internal combustion engine in the 20th century", argues Mr Rifkin in an interview with the EUobserver."The hydrogen era looms on the horizon and the first major industrial nation to harness its full potential will set the pace for economic development for the remainder of the century."To back up his thesis, he says that Hitachi and Toshiba are planning to bring the first portable fuel cells to the market in 2007.Consumers will be able to power up their cell phones, lap top computers, digital cameras, and Mp3 players with a single cartridge. And the first mass-produced vehicles are expected to be in the showrooms between 2010 and 2012, he points out. "Today's centralised, top-down flow of energy, controlled by global oil companies will then become obsolete," says Mr Rifkin, who is founder of Washington-based think-tank the Foundation on Economic Trends…."We have to reconfigure the power grip of Europe and the world, so that it’s smart and distributive just like the Internet. This is open-source energy"."This new energy regime will mean re-globalisation, this time from the bottom up.”
Lisbeth Kirk, World on the 'cusp of a new energy regime' EU Observer, 4-13-06
The Government's chief scientist today gave his starkest warning yet about the world's increasing carbon emissions saying that even the best-case scenario put millions of lives at risk by the end of the century. Professor Sir David King said that a 3C rise in global temperatures is likely within 100 years, a process that will lead to a rise in sea levels and increase in desertification that will place 400 million people at the risk of hunger. Parts of Britain will be flooded as the UK comes under coastal attack. Developing countries will be the hardest hit, with ecosystems failing to adapt and between 20 million to 400 million tonnes of cereal production being lost, according to Sir David.
He said the temperature rise would be the consequence of carbon dioxide levels of 500 parts per million, roughly double those of the Industrial Revolution. The current carbon dioxide concentration stands at 380 parts per million, already the highest levels likely to have been experienced on Earth for 740,000 years….But Sir David, who has been criticised in the past for restraining his warnings on the advice of Government ministers, had stern words for politicians who say that carbon emissions can be controlled by the use of new, environmentally-friendly technologies. "There is a difference between optimism and head in the sand," he said. "Quite clearly what we have to do as we move forward with these discussions is see that this consensus position of the scientific community is brought right into the table where the discussions are taking place."
Sam Knight, Scientist Issues Grim Warning on Global Warming, Times of London, 4-14-06
CYBERSPACE
Telecommunications companies like Verizon and AT&T want to build high-speed networks to provide video and Internet services in competition with cable companies. Will these networks be broadly available and foster technological innovation? Or will they simply benefit certain moneyed interests? The answer -- and, ultimately, the future of the Internet -- depends on the telecommunications bill currently winding its way through Congress. Consumer advocates and progressives like Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA) are pushing for the telecom networks, which will be built using public rights-of-way, to provide universal, non-discriminatory access. The telecommunications companies (along with the cable giants) want to reserve the right to give preferential access to whomever has the most cash. Thus far, unfortunately, the industry is winning.
The End Of The Internet As We Know It?, Center for American Progress, 4-12-06
Richard Power is the founder of GS(3) Intelligence and http://www.wordsofpower.net. His work focuses on the inter-related issues of security, sustainability and spirit, and how to overcome the challenges of terrorism, cyber crime, global warming, health emergencies, natural disasters, etc. You can reach him via e-mail: richardpower@wordsofpower.net. For more information, go to http://www.wordsofpower.net/
