NOTE: GS(3) Intelligence Briefing is posted on a bi-weekly basis. As circumstances dictate, we may post special editions. The Briefing is organized into five sections: Europe, Middle East and Africa, Asia Pacific, Americas, Global and Cyberspace. Each issue provides insight on terrorism, cyber crime, climate change, health emergencies, natural disasters and other threats, as well as recommendations on what actions your organizations should take to mitigate risks. “Words of Power" commentary is also posted on a bi-weekly basis. This commentary explores a range of issues in the interdependent realms of security, sustainability and spirit. For more information, go to http://www.wordsofpower.net/
Here are highlights from 12 items, including both news stories and op-ed pieces, which provide insight on important global issues and trends, such as bird flu, global warming, energy security, the struggle for geopolitical hegemony, human rights, economic espionage and cyber crime. Excerpts and links follow below this summary. Customized analysis is provided for clients.
EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA
The so-called quartet of international peace brokers in the Middle East has agreed to establish a temporary fund to channel humanitarian assistance to aid-starved Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. After a meeting in New York….European leaders have expressed fears that the shortages could create violent riots and further instability in the region, and have urged the US to review its hard line against any financial engagement with Hamas. (EU Observer, 5-10-06)
Innocent Palestinian people are being treated like animals, with the presumption that they are guilty of some crime. Because they voted for candidates who are members of Hamas, the United States government has become the driving force behind an apparently effective scheme of depriving the general public of income, access to the outside world and the necessities of life….(Jimmy Carter, International Herald Tribune, 5-7-06)
The ambitious speaker of Armenia’s parliament, Artur Baghdasarian, has stoked geopolitical controversy in Yerevan by calling for the country’s eventual withdrawal from the Russian-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization and, ultimately, its accession to NATO. (Eurasianet, 5-5-06)
ASIA PACIFIC
Unheralded and almost unnoticed, the world has seen the emergence of a new economic model. It is a developed country that enjoyed faster economic growth than the US over the past decade. Yet it also offers universal healthcare and other social welfare benefits that the US does not….That country, rolling into its 16th year of uninterrupted growth, is Australia. (Financial Times, 5-10-06)
The [Australian] Departments of Defence and Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) want academics to report foreign students enrolled in particular subjects. The Federal Government also wants to broaden export controls, forcing lecturers to apply for licences if they are going to share their knowledge abroad. (Australian Broadcasting Corporation, 5-6-06)
In the space of 12 months, Russia and China have managed to move the pieces on the geopolitical chess board of Eurasia away from what had been an overwhelming US strategic advantage, to the opposite, where the US is increasingly isolated. It's potentially the greatest strategic defeat for the US power projection of the post-World War II period. This is also the strategic background to the re-emergence of the so-called realist faction in US policy.
(Asia Times, 5-9-06)
AMERICAS
The most recent example of the Chávez effect has been Evo Morales' action in Bolivia, but upcoming elections in Mexico and Peru could also lead to a situation in which more countries are involved in a leftwards move which would shift the balance of power away from Washington and challenge foreign ownership….(Guardian/UK, 5-6-06)
Venezuela, which supplies the United States with one-sixth of its imported oil, holds the largest petroleum reserves outside the Middle East, and possibly in the world…..Chávez constantly accuses President George W. Bush, whom he calls "terrorist" and a "drunkard," of plotting to invade Venezuela. Chávez says that's why he's buying 100,000 Kalashnikov assault rifles and, he hopes, MiG aircraft from Russia. In March, Chávez also started a civilian militia that trains to refrains including: "Yankees go home!" (Newsday, 5-7-06)
GLOBAL
For the United States, the cost of the Iraq war will soon exceed the anticipated cost of the Kyoto Protocol, the international agreement designed to control greenhouse gases. For both, the cost is somewhere in excess of $300 billion…. (Washington Post, 5-10-06)
Bird flu may be capable of invading people through the gut, not just the respiratory system, and diarrhea is sometimes the first symptom, said virologist Menno de Jong, whose team observed 18 cases in Vietnam. (Bloomberg, 5-9-06)
Bird flu is spreading more slowly as warmer spring weather in the Northern Hemisphere reduces the virus' ability to survive in the environment, world health experts reported….Scientists are counting on the slowdown in animal infections to reduce the number of human cases and fatalities. (Bloomberg, 5-6-05)
CYBERSPACE
Ohio University this week disclosed two separate but apparently unrelated incidents of data theft involving its computers. On April 24, IT officials at the university noticed that someone had hacked into an alumni database server containing personal and biographical information for more than 300,000 individuals and organizations….The second data compromise involved a server at the Technology Transfer Department, which is part of the University’s Innovation Center. FBI officials told the university about that breach on April 21. The server, which contained patent data and intellectual property files, was apparently involved in another incident that the FBI was investigating….(Computerworld, 5-3-06)
Excerpts from these stories with links to the full texts follow below. Remember, words-of-power.blogspot.com is also a searchable database. It is meant to accelerate, intensify and enrich your online research.
EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA
The so-called quartet of international peace brokers in the Middle East has agreed to establish a temporary fund to channel humanitarian assistance to aid-starved Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. After a meeting in New York…the four members of the quartet - the US, the UN, Russia and the EU - said they had agreed on an international mechanism to ensure that aid reaches the region, according to press reports….The mechanism will initially be activated for three months, and one suggestion on the table is that the World Bank or another major international body could handle the distribution of aid money. "The goal is to distribute aid to the Palestinian people without going through the Palestinian government," EU foreign policy commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner said….The Palestinian authority has been in a financial quandary since Hamas came to power, with both the EU and the US freezing aid payments over the new government's failure to renounce violence and recognise Israel's right to exist. As a result, over 165,000 Palestinian public sector workers have not been paid for more than two months, causing schools and hospitals to suffer and leading to severe shortages of medicine and food in the region. European leaders have expressed fears that the shortages could create violent riots and further instability in the region, and have urged the US to review its hard line against any financial engagement with Hamas.
Teresa Küchler, Quartet agrees temporary aid for Palestine, EU Observer, 5-10-06
Innocent Palestinian people are being treated like animals, with the presumption that they are guilty of some crime. Because they voted for candidates who are members of Hamas, the United States government has become the driving force behind an apparently effective scheme of depriving the general public of income, access to the outside world and the necessities of life. Overwhelmingly, these are school teachers, nurses, social workers, police officers, farm families, shopkeepers, and their employees and families who are just hoping for a better life. Public opinion polls conducted after the January parliamentary election show that 80 percent of Palestinians still want a peace agreement with Israel based on the international road map premises….It is almost a miracle that the Palestinians have been able to orchestrate three elections during the past 10 years, all of which have been honest, fair, strongly contested, without violence and with the results accepted by winners and losers. Among the 62 elections that have been monitored by us at the Carter Center, these are among the best in portraying the will of the people. One clear reason for the surprising Hamas victory for legislative seats was that the voters were in despair about prospects for peace. With American acquiescence, the Israelis had avoided any substantive peace talks for more than five years, regardless of who had been chosen to represent the Palestinian side as interlocutor….
Jimmy Carter, Hamas and the Palestinians: Punishing the Innocent is a Crime, International Herald Tribune, 5-7-06
The ambitious speaker of Armenia’s parliament, Artur Baghdasarian, has stoked geopolitical controversy in Yerevan by calling for the country’s eventual withdrawal from the Russian-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization and, ultimately, its accession to NATO. The extraordinary statements, which run counter to one of the main tenets of Armenian foreign policy, prompted a stern rebuke from President Robert Kocharian and his close political allies. Baghdasarian responded by threatening to pull his Orinats Yerkir (Country of Law) party out of Kocharian’s governing coalition. The row is widely linked to the parliamentary and presidential elections scheduled for 2007 and 2008. Some local observers believe Baghdasarian is courting Western support to bolster his reputed presidential ambitions. The controversy also provides additional evidence that the geopolitical mood in Armenia -- a country traditionally oriented toward Russia – is slowly shifting.
Emil Danielyan, ARMENIAN SPEAKER AT ODDS WITH GOVERNMENT OVER NATO MEMBERSHIP, Eurasianet, 5-5-06
ASIA PACIFIC
Unheralded and almost unnoticed, the world has seen the emergence of a new economic model. It is a developed country that enjoyed faster economic growth than the US over the past decade. Yet it also offers universal healthcare and other social welfare benefits that the US does not. Unemployment is similar to America’s, but without the glaring income disparities that characterise US growth. It is a country that seems to have achieved a sweet spot, combining the vigour of American capitalism with the humanity of European welfare, yet suffering the drawbacks of neither. And it manages this while keeping a consistent budget surplus. That country, rolling into its 16th year of uninterrupted growth, is Australia. “In the last decade of the twentieth century, Australia became a model for other OECD countries,” wrote the 30-nation club of rich economies in its latest annual assessment of the country. Australia, which started life as a dump for Britain’s criminal effluent, was such an unlikely candidate to be any sort of economic role model that it should give hope to others….However, Australia is far from perfect and its reform drive has faltered in recent years. It has failed to manage properly the problems of its success…..Yet it has become a case study in the benefits of economic reform. It is a prototype society illustrating that vigorous capitalism can coexist with a humane welfare system.
Peter Hartcher, Sun, surf and birth of new economic model, Financial Times, 5-10-06
The Departments of Defence and Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) want academics to report foreign students enrolled in particular subjects. The Federal Government also wants to broaden export controls, forcing lecturers to apply for licences if they are going to share their knowledge abroad. Last month, the Departments of Defence and Foreign Affairs sent the document called "Export Controls, Your Responsibilities" to universities and research institutions. It says universities must inform the Government if suspicious parties are trying to get their hands on material or research that could be used in weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs….Another intelligence analyst who declined to be interviewed by ABC Radio's PM program says the guidelines are needed as America's enemies are targeting allies like Australia and Canada - countries he claims have underestimated espionage.
Sabra Lane, Govt urges academics to report on 'suspicious' student activities, Australian Broadcasting Corporation, 5-6-06
Simply put: Bush and Cheney and their band of neo-conservative war hawks…were given a chance. The chance was to deliver on the US strategic goal of control of petroleum resources globally, to ensure the US role as first among equals over the next decade and beyond. Not only have they failed to "deliver" that goal of US strategic dominance, they have also threatened the very basis of continued US hegemony, or as the Rumsfeld Pentagon likes to term it, "Full Spectrum Dominance". The move by Bolivian President Evo Morales, after meetings with Venezuela's Hugo Chavez and Cuba's Fidel Castro, to assert national control over oil and gas resources is only the latest demonstration of the decline in US power projection…..The Bush Doctrine was and is a neo-conservative doctrine of preventive and preemptive war. It has proved to be a strategic catastrophe for the US role as sole superpower. That is the background to comprehend all events today as they are unfolding in and around Washington….In the space of 12 months, Russia and China have managed to move the pieces on the geopolitical chess board of Eurasia away from what had been an overwhelming US strategic advantage, to the opposite, where the US is increasingly isolated. It's potentially the greatest strategic defeat for the US power projection of the post-World War II period. This is also the strategic background to the re-emergence of the so-called realist faction in US policy.
F. William Engdahl, The US's geopolitical nightmare, Asia Times, 5-9-06
AMERICAS
The most recent example of the Chávez effect has been Evo Morales' action in Bolivia, but upcoming elections in Mexico and Peru could also lead to a situation in which more countries are involved in a leftwards move which would shift the balance of power away from Washington and challenge foreign ownership….On June 4 in Peru, Ollanta Humala, the former army commander, who is supported by Mr Chávez and who has pledged to redistribute wealth, faces the centre-left former president, Alan García, in the runoff presidential elections. Mr Humala has said he will rewrite contracts with mining companies and "put Peru's natural resources to the service of its people"….Mexico will vote on July 2 in what is another key test for the leftist network. A month ago, the leftist former mayor of Mexico City, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, appeared to be headed for victory but his substantial lead has slipped and he is now trailing the conservative, Felipe Calderón. Mr López Obrador, who has made no secret of his plans to shake up and radicalise the Mexican economy with the aim of redistributing wealth, has recaptured some of his lost ground.
Duncan Campbell, Network of 'Hugo's friends' links politics from Mexico to Brazil: The Chávez effect and the reshaping of a continent, Guardian/UK, 5-6-06
Venezuela, which supplies the United States with one-sixth of its imported oil, holds the largest petroleum reserves outside the Middle East, and possibly in the world.
Initially dismissed by critics as a "buffoon in a beret," Chávez, a former paratrooper, has emerged as the region's highest-profile leader, even making Time magazine's list of the 100 most influential figures of the year. One day, he's paying off Argentina's final, $2.3-billion debt to the International Monetary Fund, freeing it from an institution widely loathed in Latin America for its restrictive mandates. The next day, he's flying Salvadorans here for eye surgery or spending $1 million on samba parades in Brazil.…. "The elite up there want to attack us and take our petroleum so they can suck it up like Count Dracula -- not to help the people of the United States but to dominate the world with war machines," Chávez told the 60 U.S. heating-oil recipients, whom he flew here last month. The event was broadcast live on state-run television and Telesur, Chávez's leftist satellite network for Latin America. "But we use Venezuelan oil for peace, for love, for lifting people from their misery," he continued, waving a carved magic stick that a Penobscot Indian chief had given him in thanks for the heating oil, which Venezuela's U.S.-based subsidiary Citgo sold to 181,000 homes in the Bronx, Harlem and other U.S. communities at 40-percent discounts. Chávez constantly accuses President George W. Bush, whom he calls "terrorist" and a "drunkard," of plotting to invade Venezuela. Chávez says that's why he's buying 100,000 Kalashnikov assault rifles and, he hopes, MiG aircraft from Russia. In March, Chávez also started a civilian militia that trains to refrains including: "Yankees go home!"
LETTA TAYLOR, Giving and taking: Hugo Chávez uses Venezuela’s massive oil reserves to appease poor, strengthen his stand against the U.S., Newsday, 5-7-06
GLOBAL
For the United States, the cost of the Iraq war will soon exceed the anticipated cost of the Kyoto Protocol, the international agreement designed to control greenhouse gases. For both, the cost is somewhere in excess of $300 billion….With respect to the Iraq war, careful estimates come from Scott Wallsten, a former member of the President's Council of Economic Advisers who is now at the American Enterprise Institute. Writing at the end of 2005, Wallsten estimated the aggregate American cost at about $300 billion. With the costs incurred since then, and an anticipated appropriation soon, the total will exceed $350 billion. With respect to the Kyoto Protocol, the most systematic estimates come from William Nordhaus and Joseph Boyer of Yale University. Writing in 2000, they offered a figure of $325 billion for the United States, designed to capture the full costs of compliance over many decades. This staggeringly large figure helped support Kyoto skeptics in the Bush administration and elsewhere, who argued that the benefits of the agreement did not justify its costs. For the world as a whole, the comparison between the Iraq war and the Kyoto Protocol is even more dramatic. The worldwide cost of the war is already much higher than the anticipated worldwide cost of the Kyoto Protocol - possibly at least $100 billion higher. The worldwide cost of the war now exceeds $500 billion, a figure that includes the cost to Iraq (more than $160 billion) and to non-American coalition countries (more than $40 billion). For the Kyoto Protocol, full compliance is projected to cost less than $400 billion, because the United States would bear most of the aggregate costs.
Cass R. Sunstein, It's Only $300 Billion, Washington Post, 5-10-06
Bird flu may be capable of invading people through the gut, not just the respiratory system, and diarrhea is sometimes the first symptom, said virologist Menno de Jong, whose team observed 18 cases in Vietnam. Particles of the lethal H5N1 virus contained in the meat and blood of infected poultry may have been ingested by some patients, possibly causing their infection, said De Jong, who is head of the virology department at the Oxford University Clinical Research Unit in Ho Chi Minh City….Scientists are studying H5N1 patients to improve their understanding and treatment of the virus, which has the potential to mutate into a pandemic form that may kill millions of people.
If live virus particles are carried outside the lungs and surrounding tissues to other parts of the body, some antiviral treatments such as inhaled zanamivir, marketed by GlaxoSmithKline Plc as Relenza, may not be effective treatments, De Jong said.
The infection rate in humans is increasing after more than 30 countries across three continents reported initial outbreaks in birds this year. H5N1 has killed at least 115 of the 207 people known to have been infected since late 2003, according to the World Health Organization. This year, 39 fatalities have been reported, almost as many as the 41 deaths recorded in the whole of 2005.
Jason Gale, Bird Flu May Infect People Through the Gut, Virologist Says, Bloomberg, 5-9-06
Bird flu is spreading more slowly as warmer spring weather in the Northern Hemisphere reduces the virus' ability to survive in the environment, world health experts reported….Scientists are counting on the slowdown in animal infections to reduce the number of human cases and fatalities. At least 29 people died of avian flu in the first three months of this year, marking the deadliest quarter yet, as the virus spread through Europe and Africa. "The peak transmission either in poultry or to humans is in the winter months," said Robert Webster of St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn. Webster has studied flu viruses for more than 40 years…."Maybe one of the more positive possibilities is that the summer is coming and the heat of Africa may be in our advantage," Webster told reporters in Singapore, where he addressed an avian flu forum this week sponsored by the Lancet medical journal. "Maybe we will have a summer before it starts spreading more."
Warm-up slows avian flu spread, BLOOMBERG, 5-6-05
CYBERSPACE
Ohio University this week disclosed two separate but apparently unrelated incidents of data theft involving its computers. On April 24, IT officials at the university noticed that someone had hacked into an alumni database server containing personal and biographical information for more than 300,000 individuals and organizations, said Bill Sams, the Athens-based university’s CIO. Faculty and staff members hired by the school before January 2004 were also affected. The compromised files did not include credit card or bank information, but they did include Social Security numbers for 137,800 individuals, Sams said….In the 13 months since the server was breached, “we have found that people have accessed it from both domestic and international IP addresses,” he said. The compromised server was supposed to have been decommissioned more than a year ago, and IT officials assumed the system had been taken off-line, Sams said....The second data compromise involved a server at the Technology Transfer Department, which is part of the University’s Innovation Center. FBI officials told the university about that breach on April 21. The server, which contained patent data and intellectual property files, was apparently involved in another incident that the FBI was investigating, Sams said, without providing further details. The university had no idea that the server had been broken into until the FBI pointed it out, he said....
Jaikumar Vijayan, Ohio University reports two separate security breaches, Computerworld, 5-3-06
Richard Power is the founder of GS(3) Intelligence and http://www.wordsofpower.net. His work focuses on the inter-related issues of security, sustainability and spirit, and how to overcome the challenges of terrorism, cyber crime, global warming, health emergencies, natural disasters, etc. You can reach him via e-mail: richardpower@wordsofpower.net. For more information, go to http://www.wordsofpower.net/