NOTE: GS(3) Intelligence Briefing is posted on a bi-weekly basis. As circumstances dictate, we may post special editions. The Briefing is organized into five sections: Europe, Middle East and Africa, Asia Pacific, Americas, Global, and Cyberspace. Each issue provides insight on terrorism, cyber crime, climate change, health emergencies, natural disasters, and other threats, as well as recommendations on what actions your organizations should take to mitigate risks. “Words of Power" commentary is also posted on a bi-weekly basis. This commentary explores a range of issues in the interdependent realms of security, sustainability, and spirit. For more information, go to http://www.wordsofpower.net/
Here are highlights from 10 items, including both news stories and op-ed pieces, which provide insight on important global issues and trends, such as global warming, energy security, the struggle for geopolitical hegemony, economic disparities, and cyber crime. (Bird flu and the Yogyakarta earthquake were dealt with in previously posted GS(3) Thunderbolts.) Excerpts and links follow below this summary. Customized analysis is provided for clients.
Europe, Middle East & Africa
Though Turkey is continuing with preparations for the start of accession negotiations with the European Union, some troubling developments in recent months have prompted European diplomats and local observers to question the country’s determination to enact and adhere to EU-related reforms.…. While public support for EU membership was close to 80 percent two years ago, it now hovers at around 50 percent….There is some concern now that growing political tension in Turkey may further hinder the reform process….Eurasianet, 5-25-06)
London and Brussels feature as the richest EU regions, while the six poorest regions are all in Poland, according to new figures published on Thursday (18 May) by Eurostat, the EU's statistics office. The economic power of the top region - Inner London and the bottom region in the ranking - Lubelskie in Poland - differed by 278 to 33 per cent of the union's average respectively. (EU Observer, 5-19-06)
Asia Pacific
In recent weeks, media reports from both Iraq and Afghanistan have suggested the appearance of a slow evolution of the Islamist insurgents' tactics in the direction of the battlefield deployment of larger mujahideen units that attack "harder" facilities. These attacks are not replacing small-unit attacks, ambushes, kidnappings, assassinations and suicide bombings in either country, but rather seem to be initial and tentative forays toward another stage of fighting….Al-Qaeda believes that it and its allies can only defeat the United States in a "long war", one that allows the Islamists to capitalize on their extraordinary patience, as well as on their enemies' lack thereof. (Michael Scheuer, Asia Times, 5-31-06)
Flash floods that hit northern Thailand this week, killing nearly 100 people, have revealed the vulnerability of communities to freak weather patterns in the region, say environmentalists. And this, they warn, will not be the last…. (Inter Press Service, 5-25-06)
Americas
US government forecasters earlier this month warned of another "very active" tropical storm season in the Atlantic Ocean, with an above-average 8-10 hurricanes expected to form over the next six months….Of the eight to 10 storms expected to reach hurricane status - with sustained winds of at least 74 miles an hour - four to six were likely to become "major" storms, reaching 3 or higher on the five-category scale of hurricane strength….(Financial Times Deustcheland, 5-30-06)
"We can't keep the soldiers at the petroleum wells," [President Evo] Morales said in comments Sunday. "We're going to withdraw the armed forces beginning Monday". Morales launched his nationalization plan on May 1 and ordered troops to guard all energy installations as well as gas stations and offices of foreign companies operating in Bolivia….The foreign companies, who allege have invested almost 6 billion US dollars since the 1990s, have 6 months to negotiate new contracts with the government or leave the country. (Mercosur Press, 5-30-06)
Global
Biologists have long recognized that when a species enters exponential growth in population, consumption, and the creation of wastes, it has entered plague mode(4). Humankind, however, appears oblivious to what is happening, and its political leadership has repeatedly failed to acknowledge that exponential growth by definition must have limits. By acting as if humanity can continue its expansionist trajectory indefinitely, we fail to apply to ourselves what is accepted as self evident for all other species.….Civilization overshoot of course has occurred many times in earlier years at the local geographic level; now for the first time it is occurring globally. (Canadian Association for the Club of Rome, 5-23-06)
Climate models that predict the Earth's average temperature could rise as much as 10 degrees by the end of the century may have underestimated the increase by as much as four degrees. New research at UC Berkeley and Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory suggests that as carbon dioxide emissions heat the globe, hotter oceans and soils will release stored carbon dioxide, which will in turn kick up the thermostat an extra notch…."It's a vicious cycle where more warming causes more greenhouse gas emissions, and more greenhouse gas emissions cause more warming," Torn said. "That could have serious consequences both for human populations and biodiversity." (Knight Ridder, 5-23-06)
The melting ice cap represents a colossal commercial opportunity….What is being discovered there? Oil and natural gas. A quarter of the world’s untapped fossil fuels (including 375 billion barrels of oil) are thought to lie under the Arctic, and will become accessible as the ice melts…But who owns the Arctic? Unlike the Antarctic, which was carved up in 1959, there is no international treaty to determine each Arctic nation’s ownership….Is that a recipe for conflict? Yes….
(The Week, 5-12-06)
Cyberspace
Symantec has repaired a serious problem with versions of its leading anti-virus software, which protects some of the world's largest corporations and U.S. government agencies. The flaw lets hackers steal sensitive data, delete files or implant malicious programs.…eEye published a note about its discovery on its website last week but pledged not to reveal details publicly that would help hackers attack Internet users until after Symantec repaired its anti-virus software. (Ted Birdis, Associated Press, 5-30-06)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
Though Turkey is continuing with preparations for the start of accession negotiations with the European Union, some troubling developments in recent months have prompted European diplomats and local observers to question the country’s determination to enact and adhere to EU-related reforms.
“Watching it from Ankara, there’s a sense that the political will in Ankara is not as strong as it was, if there’s any left at all, to invest in this process with Europe,” says a diplomat from an EU country, who asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue….Most troubling from the EU perspective have been a number of court cases in which writers have been accused of insulting the state and “Turkishness,” raising concern about Turkey’s commitment to freedom of speech. Rights activists are worried that a new anti-terror bill that the government plans to introduce contains several troubling articles…. While public support for EU membership was close to 80 percent two years ago, it now hovers at around 50 percent….There is some concern now that growing political tension in Turkey may further hinder the reform process. The recent killing of a top judge in Ankara has placed the AKP government firmly on the defensive….
Yigal Schleifer, TURKEY BATTLES BOUT OF EU REFORM FATIGUE, Eurasianet, 5/25/06
London and Brussels feature as the richest EU regions, while the six poorest regions are all in Poland, according to new figures published on Thursday (18 May) by Eurostat, the EU's statistics office. The economic power of the top region - Inner London and the bottom region in the ranking - Lubelskie in Poland - differed by 278 to 33 per cent of the union's average respectively. Out of the EU's 254 regions, 37 exceeded the 125 per cent level - with seven of them being in Germany, six in Italy and the UK, five in the Netherlands, three in Austria and two in Belgium and Finland. The only new member state to feature in the group was the Czech Republic, with Prague recording 138 percent of the EU's average
The countries from central and eastern Europe, which joined the block in 2004, dominate the lowest positions of the table, with sixteen Polish regions below 60 per cent of the EU's average, seven in the Czech Republic and six in Hungary.
The lowest ranked region amongst the old member states was Norte in Portugal (57%), while several poorer regions can be found in Greece, Italy and Germany, as well as overseas departments of France.
The survey is based on the 2003 GDP per inhabitant figures which are expressed in terms of purchasing power standards and it monitors the total economic activities of a region.
Lucia Kubosova, Huge gap remains between EU's richest and poorest regions, EU Observer, 5-19-06
Asia Pacific
In recent weeks, media reports from both Iraq and Afghanistan have suggested the appearance of a slow evolution of the Islamist insurgents' tactics in the direction of the battlefield deployment of larger mujahideen units that attack "harder" facilities. These attacks are not replacing small-unit attacks, ambushes, kidnappings, assassinations and suicide bombings in either country, but rather seem to be initial and tentative forays toward another stage of fighting. In the past month, reports have suggested Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and his Iraqi resistance allies are trying to train semi-conventional units, and this month's large-unit action by the Taliban at the town of Musa Qala in southern Afghanistan may be straws in the wind in this regard.
Al-Qaeda believes that it and its allies can only defeat the United States in a "long war", one that allows the Islamists to capitalize on their extraordinary patience, as well as on their enemies' lack thereof. Before his death in a firefight with Saudi security forces, the leader of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, Abu Hajar Abd al-Aziz al-Muqrin, wrote extensively about how al-Qaeda believed the military fight against the US and its allies would unfold. He envisioned a point at which the mujahideen would have to develop semi-conventional forces. He identified this period as the "Decisive Stage"
Michael Scheuer, Al-Qaeda's long march to war, Asia Times, 5-31-05
Flash floods that hit northern Thailand this week, killing nearly 100 people, have revealed the vulnerability of communities to freak weather patterns in the region, say environmentalists. And this, they warn, will not be the last.
The heavy rains in the three worst-hit provinces bear this out. Uttaradit, Sukhothai and Phrae received, over the weekend, a fifth of their annual rainfall, which is 1,500 millimetres, leading to Tuesday's flash floods and mudslides….These early monsoon rains have transformed some areas into a sea of mud that, at some points, was nearly two meters deep. The local media have carried images of wooden homes collapsed and on their sides and people waist-deep in water wading through streets. Over 100,000 people have been affected. Greenpeace pointed out that such freak weather due to climate change was predicted by scientists at a Bangkok conference in March. They referred to Anond Sanidwongs of the Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research predicting that ''La Nina is forming and should start hitting Thailand and Asia in the next two months, at the beginning of the rainy season.'' He had further predicted that ‘'the La Nina event will cause landslides and flooding nationwide.''
La Nina, which means ''the little girl'' in Spanish, is the name given to changing climate patterns arising out of extremely cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean….''Government must take note of this changing weather patterns as well as realising that more people are living in vulnerable areas,'' says Durst of the U.N. food agency. ''More preparedness is needed to mitigate the impact on communities.'' (END/2006)
Marwaan Macan-Markar, THAILAND: Flash Floods Warn of Climate Change, Inter Press Service (IPS), 5-25-06
Americas
US government forecasters earlier this month warned of another "very active" tropical storm season in the Atlantic Ocean, with an above-average 8-10 hurricanes expected to form over the next six months. The prediction came as the US, Central America and the Caribbean continue recovering from last year's savage storm season, when a record 15 hurricanes caused heavy loss of life, billions of dollars in insurance claims and a jump in oil and gas prices. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the Atlantic remained in a period of elevated storm activity that had been under way for more than a decade, caused by unusually warm ocean temperatures and various atmospheric factors. Each hurricane that makes landfall in the US causes an average $3bn (£1.6bn) in insurance losses, according to the Tropical Storm Risk Insurance Consortium. Four storms - Katrina, Rita, Wilma and Dennis - exceeded that figure last year, but the estimated cost of Katrina alone was $80bn….The forecast is down from last year's record 28 named storms but above the long-term annual average of 11. Of the eight to 10 storms expected to reach hurricane status - with sustained winds of at least 74 miles an hour - four to six were likely to become "major" storms, reaching 3 or higher on the five-category scale of hurricane strength….Tropical storms also threaten the Gulf coast oil and gas industry, which provides about a quarter of US supplies.
Andrew Ward, US coast braced for another battering, Insurance premiums, gasoline prices, and people's nerves could all shoot sky-high, Financial Times Duestcheland, .
[President Evo] Morales launched his nationalization plan on May 1 and ordered troops to guard all energy installations as well as gas stations and offices of foreign companies operating in Bolivia. However the guarding of the gas stations and offices provoked criticism in Bolivia and bad feeling in the two largest energy investors in the country, Brazil's Petrobras and Spanish-Argentine Repsol YPF. At the time Bolivian authorities said the purpose of the military guard was to protect energy installations against possible acts of sabotage from the companies affected or from celebrations by extreme nationalist groups. As part of the nationalization, Bolivia's state energy company plans to take majority control over all energy operations in the country. The foreign companies, who allege have invested almost 6 billion US dollars since the 1990s, have 6 months to negotiate new contracts with the government or leave the country.
Bolivia withdraws troops from oil industry, Mercosur Press, 5-30-06
Global
Prior to the onset of the Industrial Revolution, world population had less than tripled during the preceding 1,750 years; during the last 255 years it has increased more than 8-fold, from 800 million to 6.5 billion. The population increase during the Industrial Revolution represents an incredible rate of increase 21 times greater than it was during the preceding 1,750 year period.
Until very recently, the world sounded no alarm bells in response to the above unprecedented increase in human numbers, together with a more than 100-fold increase in the consumption of natural resources during the same period, and an even greater level of increase in the pollution of the planet and its atmosphere. Our obsessive homocentric focus on ourselves has blinded us to the perils of destroying the ecosphere, the planetary home of humans and all other life forms. We have become a species run amok.
Biologists have long recognized that when a species enters exponential growth in population, consumption, and the creation of wastes, it has entered plague mode(4). Humankind, however, appears oblivious to what is happening, and its political leadership has repeatedly failed to acknowledge that exponential growth by definition must have limits. By acting as if humanity can continue its expansionist trajectory indefinitely, we fail to apply to ourselves what is accepted as self evident for all other species.….Civilization overshoot of course has occurred many times in earlier years at the local geographic level; now for the first time it is occurring globally. There are important differences between the collapse of historic civilizations in earlier times and the approaching collapse of today’s technically advanced global civilization. These differences include:
• Unlike all earlier civilizations, in the early 21st century we possess detailed population, economic, resource, and environmental data, as well as sophisticated computer analyses and projections, that provide us with advance warning of collapse. We possess the tools to warn us what may be coming, earlier civilizations did not.
• Because our present civilization is complex, its scope is global, and overshoot is increasing rapidly, the magnitude of mitigation efforts requires an unprecedented level of global cooperation and discipline, as well as preparation time measured in decades(7).
• The fact that our present civilization is global, not limited to one geographic area, as well as the fact that supplies of many critical resources are diminishing, increases the potential of global collapse imperiling the future of all humankind, perhaps for centuries. The stakes this time are very much greater.
While the evidence indicates that it is now too late to rescue civilization as it now exists, it may not be too late to preserve key elements of civilization, and the world’s present knowledge base. An important first step in formulating a survival blueprint for humankind is the adoption of a new world view to replace today’s doctrine of species selfish homocentrism with an ecologically responsible and Earth-centered perspective.
Andrew A. D. Clarke, The human ecological footprint, Canadian Association for the Club of Rome, 5-23-06
Climate models that predict the Earth's average temperature could rise as much as 10 degrees by the end of the century may have underestimated the increase by as much as four degrees. New research at UC Berkeley and Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory suggests that as carbon dioxide emissions heat the globe, hotter oceans and soils will release stored carbon dioxide, which will in turn kick up the thermostat an extra notch. "We've probably underestimated the problem," said UC Berkeley ecologist John Harte….Harte and biogeochemist Margaret Torn of the Berkeley lab predict that if humans double the carbon dioxide, that will actually lead to more carbon dioxide being released naturally, which in turn will push the global thermostat up between 2.9 and 11 degrees, with the higher temperatures more likely. By the end of the century, the increase could be as much as 14 degrees. "It's a vicious cycle where more warming causes more greenhouse gas emissions, and more greenhouse gas emissions cause more warming," Torn said. "That could have serious consequences both for human populations and biodiversity."
Betsy Mason, Global Warming Could Be Worse Than Predicted, Research, Knight Ridder, 5-23-06
How fast is the ice cap melting?
….With average temperatures in the Arctic rising twice as fast as elsewhere in the world, climate scientists predict the Arctic Ocean could be ice-free by the summer of 2050….
Who stands to lose from all this?
The melting of the ice could shut down the Gulf Stream and wreak havoc with the world’s coasts and climate. It would spell potential disaster for traditional Arctic communities, for ecosystems, and for plant and animal species…
Who stands to gain?
The melting ice cap represents a colossal commercial opportunity….
What is being discovered there?
Oil and natural gas. A quarter of the world’s untapped fossil fuels (including 375 billion barrels of oil) are thought to lie under the Arctic, and will become accessible as the ice melts…
But who owns the Arctic?
Unlike the Antarctic, which was carved up in 1959, there is no international treaty to determine each Arctic nation’s ownership….
Is that a recipe for conflict?
Yes. Each summer, research ships from the Arctic nations set out on political missions to map the ocean floor to bolster territorial claims.…
How will these conflicts be resolved?
In theory, through negotiation, but when two nations cannot agree, the U.N. Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf is brought in as an arbitrator. (It has just turned down a Russian demand for greater Arctic rights.) The U.S., however, won’t accept the commission’s authority…
The Battle for the North Pole, The melting Arctic ice cap may be bad news for polar bears, but it is prompting a frantic scramble for territory and resources. What’s at stake?, The Week, 5-12-05
Cyberspace
Symantec has repaired a serious problem with versions of its leading anti-virus software, which protects some of the world's largest corporations and U.S. government agencies. The flaw lets hackers steal sensitive data, delete files or implant malicious programs. Symantec, of Cupertino, Calif., began providing a repairing patch for its software over the Memorial Day weekend, just days after researchers disclosed the problem. The speedy response — many software manufacturers take months to do similar repairs — underscored the seriousness of the threat, which affected the latest corporate versions of Symantec Anti-virus. ….Symantec said its engineers have worked 24 hours a day on the problem since its discovery last week by eEye Digital Security of Aliso Viejo, Calif…eEye published a note about its discovery on its website last week but pledged not to reveal details publicly that would help hackers attack Internet users until after Symantec repaired its anti-virus software.
Ted Birdis, Symantec repairs flaw in anti-virus software, Associated Press, 5-30-06
Richard Power is the founder of GS(3) Intelligence and http://www.wordsofpower.net. His work focuses on the inter-related issues of security, sustainability and spirit, and how to overcome the challenges of terrorism, cyber crime, global warming, health emergencies, natural disasters, etc. You can reach him via e-mail: richardpower@wordsofpower.net. For more information, go to http://www.wordsofpower.net/
global warming, climate change,
bird flu, Avian flu, H5N1, geopolitics, terrorism, Peak Oil, Energy Security, Environmental Security, Energy, Sustainable resources, Renewable Resources, Environment Millennium Goals, Alternative Energy